Monday, May 5, 2008

Google wins on (any) Microhoo deal

Yes, I know that Microsoft has officially walked away from a possible hostile bid move on Yahoo. The market pressures that pushed MS to attempt the friendly offer in the first place have only continued to escalate however with the emergence of a Yahoo/Google search ad deal. It very well may be a poison pill for MS if Google can ink the deal to serve ads onto the Yahoo network but we aren't there yet. MS has a major hurdle to cross, examples of the trending to Platform as a Service (PaaS) solutions like the deal between Salesforce and Google underscore how quickly the tides can change in technology. Microsoft can either become a holding company of mature products (read IBM and Oracle) or innovators (something never before done in Redmond). They seem to have resolved themselves to being an investor, hence the Yahoo bid.

What Wall Street and most of main street doesn't understand is how utterly bad a Microhoo company will perform. Mixing oil and vinegar only makes a vinegrette when there is an emulsifying agent involved. I see no binding agents between these two organizations. Right now Microsoft and Yahoo are about as technologically and culturally opposite as I have ever seen. What platform wins? The dominant Web platform (Linux) or the dominant small intranet platform (Windows Server)? The mass defections at Yahoo will likely become a wholesale exodus. Microsoft may think it's buying market share but the social community market is as fickle as teen shopper. Google will benefit no matter what direction this deal goes. They have to be praying that the deal happens and the Microhoo goo gets thick. If not, they are dealing with two organizations that have proven they can't compete in the Web platform space. Google's got to be loving this.

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